Erzurumspor FK 33%Draw 23%Samsunspor 44%Expected goals 1.38 – 1.62
63%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Samsunspor to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSamsunspor to win ✗44% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.11
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Erzurumspor FK welcome Samsunspor to Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu for a Süper Lig fixture on Sunday 20 September (15:00 WAT). In the table, Erzurumspor FK are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Samsunspor are 17th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Erzurumspor FK, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Beşiktaş, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Samsunspor, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Çorum FK, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Erzurumspor FK 1.4 xG, Samsunspor 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Erzurumspor FK 33%, draw 23%, Samsunspor 44%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Samsunspor to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.60, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Samsunspor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Erzurumspor FK33%fair 3.00 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.10
Samsunspor44%fair 2.29 · @2.62
3.00Expected goals
1.38Erzurumspor FK xG
1.62Samsunspor xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Erzurumspor FK 1.4 – 1.6 Samsunspor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Samsunspor to win✗
44%
2.29
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Samsunspor (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Erzurumspor FK +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Samsunspor to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Samsunspor / FT Samsunspor✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.11
–
Recent results
Erzurumspor FK – last 6
LWDLLD
11 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
0–3
L
5 Sep
vs Konyaspor
1–0
W
28 Aug
@ Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Galatasaray
0–4
L
16 Aug
@ Amed
0–3
L
17 Jul
vs Rizespor
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Samsunspor – last 6
LLLWDL
12 Sep
vs Çorum FK
1–5
L
6 Sep
@ Kocaelispor
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Fenerbahçe
0–2
L
22 Aug
@ Rizespor
2–0
W
17 Aug
vs Göztepe
3–3
D
8 Aug
@ Kasımpaşa
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor.
What is the prediction for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
On our numbers Erzurumspor FK have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Samsunspor 44%.
How many goals will there be in Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our predicted score is Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Samsunspor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor (Süper Lig) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
