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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Merthyr Town v Briton Ferry: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

Merthyr Town

LDWWL
3–0
FT

Briton Ferry

WLWWW
Merthyr Town 45%Draw 21%Briton Ferry 34% Expected goals 1.91 – 1.55
67%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2

Value bet: Briton Ferry to win @ 4.20 – our chance 34% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +41%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultMerthyr Town to win ✓45% · @1.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.26

Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:30 WAT, Tuesday 21 July: Merthyr Town v Briton Ferry in the Friendlies Clubs.

Current form

Merthyr Town, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Forest Green, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Briton Ferry, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Cardiff MET, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Briton Ferry, collecting 2.4 points per game to 1.3 for Merthyr Town.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.9 xG, Briton Ferry 1.5 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 45%, draw 21%, Briton Ferry 34%.
  • Price worth noting: Briton Ferry to win @4.20 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 34%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 2–1 Briton Ferry. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Merthyr Town45%fair 2.20 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.50
Briton Ferry34%fair 2.98 · @4.20
3.46Expected goals
1.91Merthyr Town xG
1.55Briton Ferry xG
55%Both score
67%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%

From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.9 – 1.5 Briton Ferry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

Merthyr TownBriton Ferry
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average+10%-10%
Goals conceded vs average-12%+7%
Our expected goals here1.571.21

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMerthyr Town to win ✓45%2.201.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.27–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗55%1.82–
Draw no betMerthyr Town (draw no bet) ✓58%1.74–
Asian handicapBriton Ferry +1 (Asian handicap) ✗68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67%1.501.40
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓55%1.83–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓73%1.36–
First team to scoreMerthyr Town to score first ✓53%1.87–
Half-time resultMerthyr Town ahead at half-time ✓36%2.75–
Half-time / full-timeHT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town ✓28%3.52–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.26–

Recent results

Merthyr Town – last 6

LDWWLD
18 Julvs Forest Green1–2L
14 Julvs Yeovil Town2–2D
10 Julvs Cambrian & Clydach4–2W
14 Apr@ Marine3–1W
6 Apr@ Hereford0–3L
3 Aprvs Oxford City1–1D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Briton Ferry – last 5

WLWWW
3 Aprvs Cardiff MET3–1W
28 Mar@ Haverfordwest County AFC0–1L
16 Mar@ Cardiff MET2–0W
13 Mar@ llanelli AFC2–0W
21 Febvs Bala Town2–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Briton Ferry.

Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry head-to-head page →

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry?

On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Briton Ferry 34%.

How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry?

Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 2–1 Briton Ferry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry?

Merthyr Town vs Briton Ferry (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.