Fatih Karagümrük 61%Draw 21%Ümraniyespor 17%Expected goals 1.29 – 0.46
82%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFatih Karagümrük to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceFatih Karagümrük or draw ✓83% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.45
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fatih Karagümrük welcome Ümraniyespor to Atatürk Olympic Stadium for a 1. Lig fixture on Saturday 15 August (17:00 WAT). In the table, Fatih Karagümrük are 9th, upper half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Ümraniyespor are 12th (lower half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fatih Karagümrük, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Iğdır FK, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Ümraniyespor, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Mardin 1969, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fatih Karagümrük 1.3 xG, Ümraniyespor 0.5 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fatih Karagümrük 61%, draw 21%, Ümraniyespor 17%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Ümraniyespor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fatih Karagümrük61%fair 1.63 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.40
Ümraniyespor17%fair 5.83 · @4.60
1.74Expected goals
1.29Fatih Karagümrük xG
0.46Ümraniyespor xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–022%
0–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fatih Karagümrük 1.3 – 0.5 Ümraniyespor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fatih Karagümrük to win✓
61%
1.63
1.70
Double chance
Fatih Karagümrük or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.73
Draw no bet
Fatih Karagümrük (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Ümraniyespor +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Fatih Karagümrük to score first
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fatih Karagümrük / FT Fatih Karagümrük✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
22%
4.45
–
Recent results
Fatih Karagümrük – last 6
LDLWLW
9 Aug
@ Iğdır FK
0–2
L
27 Apr
@ Beşiktaş
0–0
D
12 Apr
@ Konyaspor
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Rizespor
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Kayserispor
0–1
L
13 Mar
vs Fenerbahçe
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ümraniyespor – last 6
DLLDWL
8 Aug
vs Mardin 1969
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs Galatasaray
1–5
L
19 Apr
vs Vanspor FK
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Amed
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Sakaryaspor
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Bodrum FK
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fatih Karagümrük and Ümraniyespor.
What is the prediction for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
On our numbers Fatih Karagümrük have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ümraniyespor 17%.
How many goals will there be in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our predicted score is Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Ümraniyespor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Atatürk Olympic Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
