Fatih Karagümrük 63%Draw 21%Muğlaspor 16%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.69
84%
Betarazi pick
Fatih Karagümrük or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Fatih Karagümrük to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFatih Karagümrük to win ✗63% · @1.75
Double chanceFatih Karagümrük or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.40
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fatih Karagümrük welcome Muğlaspor to Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium for a 1. Lig fixture on Sunday 11 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Fatih Karagümrük are 9th, upper half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Muğlaspor are 11th (lower half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fatih Karagümrük, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Esenler Erokspor, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Muğlaspor, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Iğdır FK, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fatih Karagümrük 1.7 xG, Muğlaspor 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fatih Karagümrük 63%, draw 21%, Muğlaspor 16%.
Lower-risk option: Fatih Karagümrük or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Fatih Karagümrük or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Muğlaspor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fatih Karagümrük63%fair 1.60 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.40
Muğlaspor16%fair 6.22 · @4.33
2.38Expected goals
1.69Fatih Karagümrük xG
0.69Muğlaspor xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fatih Karagümrük 1.7 – 0.7 Muğlaspor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fatih Karagümrük to win✗
63%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Fatih Karagümrük or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.91
Draw no bet
Fatih Karagümrük (draw no bet)
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Fatih Karagümrük -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Fatih Karagümrük to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fatih Karagümrük / FT Fatih Karagümrük✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.40
–
Recent results
Fatih Karagümrük – last 6
WDLDDW
19 Sep
@ Esenler Erokspor
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Manisa F.K.
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Batman Petrolspor
3–4
L
2 Sep
vs Kayserispor
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ İstanbulspor
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Bursaspor
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Muğlaspor – last 6
DDDWWD
18 Sep
vs Iğdır FK
2–2
D
13 Sep
@ Sivasspor
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Vanspor FK
2–2
D
1 Sep
@ Ümraniyespor
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Boluspor
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Bodrum FK
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fatih Karagümrük and Muğlaspor.
What is the prediction for Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor?
Our pick is Fatih Karagümrük or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor?
On our numbers Fatih Karagümrük have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Muğlaspor 16%.
How many goals will there be in Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor?
Our predicted score is Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Muğlaspor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor (1. Lig) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
