Value bet: Fatih Karagümrük to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMardin 1969 to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the 1. Lig brings Mardin 1969 against Fatih Karagümrük at 21 Kasım Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Mardin 1969 are 4th, among the top four, on 25 points after 14 matches; Fatih Karagümrük are 9th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Mardin 1969, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bursaspor, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Fatih Karagümrük, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Muğlaspor, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mardin 1969 1.3 xG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mardin 1969 46%, draw 23%, Fatih Karagümrük 31%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mardin 1969 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mardin 196946%fair 2.17 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.20
Fatih Karagümrük31%fair 3.22 · @3.50
2.33Expected goals
1.32Mardin 1969 xG
1.01Fatih Karagümrük xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mardin 1969 1.3 – 1.0 Fatih Karagümrük expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mardin 1969 to win✓
46%
2.17
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.75
Draw no bet
Mardin 1969 (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Fatih Karagümrük +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Mardin 1969 to score first✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mardin 1969 / FT Mardin 1969✓
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Mardin 1969 – last 6
WLLWDD
11 Oct
@ Bursaspor
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Kayserispor
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Iğdır FK
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Bodrum FK
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Sivasspor
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Vanspor FK
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fatih Karagümrük – last 6
DWDLDD
11 Oct
vs Muğlaspor
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Esenler Erokspor
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Manisa F.K.
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Batman Petrolspor
3–4
L
2 Sep
vs Kayserispor
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ İstanbulspor
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük.
What is the prediction for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
On our numbers Mardin 1969 have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fatih Karagümrük 31%.
How many goals will there be in Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our predicted score is Mardin 1969 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük (1. Lig) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at 21 Kasım Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
