Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Jalapa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJalapa to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceJalapa or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Jalapa vs Matagalpa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:00 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Jalapa v Matagalpa in the Primera Division. In the table, Jalapa are 8th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 16 matches; Matagalpa are 10th (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Jalapa, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to UNAN Managua, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Matagalpa, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over San Marcos, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Jalapa, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Matagalpa.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Jul 2026) it ended Jalapa 3–2 Matagalpa. The last 2 head-to-heads: Jalapa 1 win, Matagalpa 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Jalapa 1.7 xG, Matagalpa 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Jalapa 59%, draw 25%, Matagalpa 16%.
Lower-risk option: Jalapa or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Jalapa to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Jalapa or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Jalapa 1–0 Matagalpa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Jalapa59%fair 1.71 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.30
Matagalpa16%fair 6.11 · @3.60
2.51Expected goals
1.71Jalapa xG
0.79Matagalpa xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Jalapa 1.7 – 0.8 Matagalpa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Jalapa or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
On our numbers Jalapa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Matagalpa 16%.
How many goals will there be in Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
Our predicted score is Jalapa 1–0 Matagalpa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
Jalapa vs Matagalpa (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
