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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Merthyr Town v Marine: numbers & prediction

National League North · England · Penydarren Park

Merthyr Town

LDDWW
1–2
FT

Marine

WWLLL
Merthyr Town 45%Draw 22%Marine 33% Expected goals 1.26 – 1.02
55%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.80 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.62Odds

Picks by market

ResultMerthyr Town to win ✗45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.08

Merthyr Town vs Marine: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Merthyr Town welcome Marine to Penydarren Park for a National League North fixture on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT). In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Marine are 16th (lower half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Merthyr Town, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Truro City, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Marine, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Radcliffe, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Apr 2026) it ended Marine 1–3 Merthyr Town.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.3 xG, Marine 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 45%, draw 22%, Marine 33%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.62.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Marine. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Merthyr Town45%fair 2.24 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.25
Marine33%fair 3.04 · @3.10
2.28Expected goals
1.26Merthyr Town xG
1.02Marine xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%

From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.3 – 1.0 Marine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMerthyr Town to win ✗45%2.242.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.801.62
Draw no betMerthyr Town (draw no bet) ✗58%1.74–
Asian handicapMarine +1 (Asian handicap) ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.50–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗60%1.66–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80%1.24–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.09–
First team to scoreMerthyr Town to score first ✗50%2.02–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town ✗24%4.16–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.08–

Recent results

Merthyr Town – last 6

LDDWWL
22 Sep@ Truro City0–2L
19 Sepvs Truro City1–1D
12 Sep@ Scarborough Athletic0–0D
8 Sep@ Chester1–0W
5 Sepvs Macclesfield2–1W
31 Aug@ Buxton1–2L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Marine – last 6

WWLLLW
19 Sepvs Radcliffe3–2W
12 Sepvs Darlington 18832–1W
8 Sep@ South Shields1–2L
5 Sepvs Worksop Town0–1L
31 Aug@ Harborough Town1–2L
29 Augvs Radcliffe2–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Apr 2026Marine v Merthyr Town1–3
Merthyr Town vs Marine head-to-head page →

National League North table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1South Shields151023+1032
2Hereford16934+1430
3Oxford City15843+1528
4Macclesfield13832+1027
5Hednesford Town16835+827
6King's Lynn Town16835+627
7Buxton16835+527
8Chester15825+426
9Morecambe16736+524
10Bedford Town14716-222
11AFC Telford United16646-422
12Spalding United15636+321
13Chorley15627-120
14Worksop Town15627-120
15Hebburn Town15555-820
16Marine15618019
17Merthyr Town16475-119
18Brackley Town16547-919
19Harborough Town14455-417
20Scarborough Athletic16448-316
21Radcliffe15519-816
22Darlington 1883163310-912
23Southport15249-1510
24Spennymoor Town15249-1510

More National League North predictions

League hub
FT AFC Telford United0 King's Lynn Town5 141%2.05X21%3.50238%2.90 1.4–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Bedford Town1 Hereford1 136%2.50X21%3.50243%2.40 1.3–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 63%@1.62 ✓
FT Brackley Town1 Scarborough Athletic1 133%2.80X22%3.30246%2.20 1.2–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Chester4 Worksop Town1 161%1.62X25%3.60214%4.50 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.36 ✗
FT Chorley2 Spalding United1 132%2.62X21%3.50247%2.25 1.3–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Darlington 18831 Hebburn Town1 142%2.10X20%3.60238%2.75 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.53 ✓
FT Hednesford Town4 Radcliffe1 163%1.67X22%3.80215%4.00 2.0–0.9xG 1XHednesford Town or draw 85%@1.20 ✓
FT Macclesfield1 Harborough Town0 160%1.75X25%3.50215%3.90 1.5–0.6xG 1XMacclesfield or draw 85%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Marine?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Merthyr Town vs Marine?

On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marine 33%.

How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Marine?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Marine?

Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Marine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Merthyr Town vs Marine?

Merthyr Town vs Marine (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.