Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultEbbsfleet United to win ✓57% · @1.85

Double chanceEbbsfleet United or draw ✓82% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.59

Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ebbsfleet United welcome Weston-super-Mare to Stonebridge Road Stadium for a National League South fixture on Saturday 17 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Ebbsfleet United are 1st, leading the league, on 35 points after 16 matches; Weston-super-Mare are 14th (lower half) with 21. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Ebbsfleet United, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over AFC Totton, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Weston-super-Mare, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Folkestone Invicta, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Ebbsfleet United, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Weston-super-Mare.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ebbsfleet United 1.7 xG, Weston-super-Mare 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Ebbsfleet United 57%, draw 25%, Weston-super-Mare 18%.
Lower-risk option: Ebbsfleet United or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ebbsfleet United or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ebbsfleet United 1–0 Weston-super-Mare. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ebbsfleet United57%fair 1.75 · @1.85

Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.30

Weston-super-Mare18%fair 5.71 · @3.70

2.47Expected goals

1.66Ebbsfleet United xG

0.81Weston-super-Mare xG

57%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–08%

0–17%

From our goals model: Ebbsfleet United 1.7 – 0.8 Weston-super-Mare expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Ebbsfleet United to win ✓	57%	1.75	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Ebbsfleet United or draw ✓	82%	1.21	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.77	1.75
Draw no bet	Ebbsfleet United (draw no bet) ✓	77%	1.31	–
Asian handicap	Weston-super-Mare +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	68%	1.47	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.42	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	55%	1.81	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	90%	1.12	–
First team to score	Ebbsfleet United to score first ✓	62%	1.62	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Ebbsfleet United / FT Ebbsfleet United ✓	35%	2.82	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.59	–

Ebbsfleet United – last 6

WWWLDW

13 Oct	vs AFC Totton	5–0	W
10 Oct	@ Hampton & Richmond	2–0	W
6 Oct	vs Folkestone Invicta	1–0	W
3 Oct	vs Sholing	1–2	L
29 Sep	@ Slough Town	1–1	D
26 Sep	@ Tonbridge Angels	2–1	W

2.0Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Weston-super-Mare – last 6

DLDDWW

10 Oct	vs Folkestone Invicta	1–1	D
26 Sep	@ Farnham Town	2–3	L
22 Sep	@ Wimborne Town	0–0	D
19 Sep	vs Wimborne Town	1–1	D
12 Sep	vs Dagenham & Redbridge	1–0	W
8 Sep	vs AFC Totton	3–1	W

1.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ebbsfleet United	16	10	5	1	+26	35
2	Maidstone Utd	16	10	2	4	+9	32
3	Salisbury	15	9	4	2	+17	31
4	Truro City	14	9	3	2	+15	30
5	Farnham Town	16	9	2	5	+12	29
6	Dorking Wanderers	15	7	6	2	+11	27
7	Billericay Town	14	7	5	2	+16	26
8	Chelmsford City	16	5	10	1	+8	25
9	Dagenham & Redbridge	16	7	4	5	+2	25
10	Tonbridge Angels	16	7	3	6	+9	24
11	Torquay	15	6	5	4	+7	23
12	Horsham	16	5	7	4	+4	22
13	Dover	14	6	4	4	+1	22
14	Weston-super-Mare	15	6	3	6	+3	21
15	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	+4	20
16	AFC Totton	16	6	1	9	-12	19
17	Farnborough	16	5	2	9	-20	17
18	Maidenhead	16	3	7	6	-5	16
19	Braintree	16	5	1	10	-18	16
20	Hemel Hempstead Town	17	3	6	8	-11	15
21	Chesham United	15	3	2	10	-13	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	16	2	4	10	-18	10
23	Walton & Hersham	15	2	2	11	-25	8
24	Slough Town	16	2	1	13	-22	7

Team

Pts

+26

+17

+15

+12

+11

+16

-12

-20

-5

-18

-11

-13

-18

-25

-22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Our pick is Ebbsfleet United or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

On our numbers Ebbsfleet United have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Weston-super-Mare 18%.

How many goals will there be in Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Our predicted score is Ebbsfleet United 1–0 Weston-super-Mare, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare?

Ebbsfleet United vs Weston-super-Mare (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stonebridge Road Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Ebbsfleet United v Weston-super-Mare: numbers & prediction