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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Riga v Vardar Skopje: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Skonto

Riga

WWWWL
1–2
FTAET 5–2

Vardar Skopje

WLWLW
Riga 58%Draw 22%Vardar Skopje 20% Expected goals 2.05 – 1.41
63%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultRiga to win ✗58% · @1.29
Double chanceRiga or draw ✗80% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.74

Riga vs Vardar Skopje: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Riga welcome Vardar Skopje to Skonto for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Tuesday 28 July (18:00 WAT).

Current form

Riga, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Vardar Skopje, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Vardar Skopje, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Bregalnica Štip, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Vardar Skopje.

Head to head

When they last met (22 Jul 2026) it ended Vardar Skopje 2–3 Riga.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Riga 2.1 xG, Vardar Skopje 1.4 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 60%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Riga 58%, draw 22%, Vardar Skopje 20%.
  • GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.83.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga 2–1 Vardar Skopje. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Riga58%fair 1.73 · @1.29
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.75
Vardar Skopje20%fair 4.92 · @9.40
3.46Expected goals
2.05Riga xG
1.41Vardar Skopje xG
60%Both score
63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%
1–19%
2–07%
2–27%
1–06%
1–26%

From our goals model: Riga 2.1 – 1.4 Vardar Skopje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultRiga to win ✗58%1.731.29
Double chanceRiga or draw ✗80%1.261.03
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓60%1.651.83 ▲
Draw no betRiga (draw no bet) ✗74%1.35–
Asian handicapVardar Skopje +1 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83%1.211.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓63%1.581.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓58%1.731.53
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓75%1.331.22
First team to scoreRiga to score first ✗57%1.74–
Half-time resultRiga ahead at half-time ✗40%2.49–
Half-time / full-timeHT Riga / FT Riga ✗33%3.04–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.74–

Recent results

Riga – last 6

WWWWLW
22 Jul@ Vardar Skopje3–2W
18 Julvs Tukums3–1W
14 Julvs Ararat-Armenia3–2W
10 Jul@ Leevon PPK3–2W
7 Jul@ Ararat-Armenia0–2L
3 Julvs FS Jelgava3–0W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Vardar Skopje – last 6

WLWLWD
25 Julvs Bregalnica Štip2–0W
22 Julvs Riga2–3L
14 Jul@ KuPS2–0W
7 Julvs KuPS0–2L
30 Jun@ Virtus3–2W
27 Jun@ La Fiorita1–1D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

22 Jul 2026Vardar Skopje v Riga2–3
Riga vs Vardar Skopje head-to-head page →

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1FC Lugano3300+79
2Panathinaikos3300+69
3Twente3300+69
4Monaco3300+69
5Brighton3210+57
6Brann3210+47
7FC Copenhagen3210+47
8Universitatea Craiova3210+47
9Mjallby AIF3210+47
10St. Truiden3210+37
11Ajax3201+66
12Trabzonspor3201+36
13HNK Hajduk Split3201+16
14SC Freiburg3201-16
15FK Crvena Zvezda311104
16Atalanta311104
17SC Braga3111-14
18Gent3111-14
19Riga303003
20FC Thun310203
21Borac Banja Luka3102-13
22Lincoln Red Imps FC3102-33
23FK Jablonec3021-12
24Aarhus3021-12
25FC Nordsjaelland3021-22
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë3021-22
27Kairat Almaty3021-42
28CSKA Sofia3012-21
29FC Iberia 19993012-31
30Pafos3012-41
31Getafe3012-41
32Heart Of Midlothian3012-41
33KuPS3012-41
34FC Midtjylland3012-61
35Inter Club d'Escaldes3003-50
36Kauno Žalgiris3003-100

More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions

League hub
FT Apollon Limassol3 Dila0 168%1.31X19%4.85213%8.25 2.2–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT CSKA 19480 Spartak Trnava0 Pens 5–3 154%1.88X25%3.35221%3.85 1.8–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.33 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

On our numbers Riga have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vardar Skopje 20%.

How many goals will there be in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Our predicted score is Riga 2–1 Vardar Skopje, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Riga vs Vardar Skopje (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.