Value bet: Dumbarton to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDumbarton to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.37
Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Dumbarton welcome Kilmarnock II to Dumbarton Football Stadium for a Challenge Cup fixture on Tuesday 22 September (19:45 WAT).
Current form
Dumbarton, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Spartans, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Kilmarnock II, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cowdenbeath, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dumbarton 2.9 xG, Kilmarnock II 1.8 xG – a total near 4.7. That is an open game on paper: 84% for three or more goals, 73% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dumbarton 60%, draw 18%, Kilmarnock II 22%.
GG/NG: GG (73%) at 1.35.
Price worth noting: Dumbarton to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dumbarton 2–1 Kilmarnock II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dumbarton60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw18%fair 5.56 · @3.50
Kilmarnock II22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
4.67Expected goals
2.88Dumbarton xG
1.79Kilmarnock II xG
73%Both score
84%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
1–15%
4–15%
From our goals model: Dumbarton 2.9 – 1.8 Kilmarnock II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dumbarton to win✓
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
73%
1.36
1.35
Draw no bet
Dumbarton (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Dumbarton -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
First team to score
Dumbarton to score first✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Dumbarton ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dumbarton / FT Dumbarton✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.37
–
Recent results
Dumbarton – last 6
WLLWLD
19 Sep
vs Spartans
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ Stranraer
1–3
L
8 Sep
@ Cove Rangers
1–6
L
5 Sep
vs Elgin City
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Annan Athletic
0–2
L
25 Aug
vs Celtic II
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Kilmarnock II – last 3
WDL
8 Sep
@ Cowdenbeath
2–1
W
25 Aug
@ Cumbernauld Colts
1–1
D
11 Aug
@ East Kilbride
3–5
L
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dumbarton and Kilmarnock II.
What is the prediction for Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
On our numbers Dumbarton have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Kilmarnock II 22%.
How many goals will there be in Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
Our predicted score is Dumbarton 2–1 Kilmarnock II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Dumbarton Football Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Alloa Athletic4
Hibernian U211
Banks O' Dee2
Aberdeen U211
Berwick Rangers3
Stranraer2
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic1
Airdrie United6
Clachnacuddin1
Ross County5
Clyde1
Rangers U212
East Kilbride3
Celtic II3
Edinburgh City1
Dundee United II0