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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Neftchi Baku v Dinamo Minsk: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Neftçi Arena

Neftchi Baku

WWWWW
2–4
FT

Dinamo Minsk

WLWDW
Neftchi Baku 39%Draw 36%Dinamo Minsk 25% Expected goals 1.26 – 0.95
80%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✗39% · @2.10
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.09

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 22 July the UEFA Europa Conference League brings Neftchi Baku against Dinamo Minsk at Neftçi Arena. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT.

Current form

Neftchi Baku, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Radnicki NIS, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Dinamo Minsk, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sileks, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.2 for Dinamo Minsk.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi Baku 1.3 xG, Dinamo Minsk 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi Baku 39%, draw 36%, Dinamo Minsk 25%.
  • Lower-risk option: Neftchi Baku or draw (75%) at 1.30.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Dinamo Minsk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Neftchi Baku39%fair 2.55 · @2.10
Draw36%fair 2.76 · @3.20
Dinamo Minsk25%fair 4.07 · @3.30
2.21Expected goals
1.26Neftchi Baku xG
0.95Dinamo Minsk xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.3 – 0.9 Dinamo Minsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNeftchi Baku to win ✗39%2.552.10
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✗75%1.331.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.911.91
Draw no betNeftchi Baku (draw no bet) ✗61%1.63–
Asian handicapDinamo Minsk +1 (Asian handicap) ✓74%1.35–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.521.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗60%1.671.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80%1.251.20
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗93%1.08–
First team to scoreNeftchi Baku to score first51%1.97–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku ✗25%3.99–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.09–

Recent results

Neftchi Baku – last 6

WWWWWW
10 Jul@ Radnicki NIS3–0W
6 Julvs FK Partizan1–0W
23 May@ Kapaz1–0W
17 May@ Sabah FA2–1W
5 May@ Karvan3–0W
30 Aprvs Qarabag2–1W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Dinamo Minsk – last 6

WLWDWW
16 Jul@ Sileks1–0W
9 Julvs Sileks0–1L
2 Jul@ FC Minsk3–0W
27 Junvs FC Vitebsk1–1D
21 Jun@ Neman3–1W
17 Jun@ FC Slutsk2–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Minsk.

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk head-to-head page →

More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions

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FT Vardar Skopje2 Riga3 134%2.64X35%3.45231%2.38 1.5–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓
FT Spartak Trnava0 CSKA 19480 134%2.30X36%3.20231%2.94 1.4–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.36 ✗
FT Železničar Pančevo0 SC Braga1 121%7.80X24%4.30255%1.37 1.1–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 71%@1.42 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Dinamo Minsk 25%.

How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Dinamo Minsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk?

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Neftçi Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.