Vardar Skopje v Riga Prediction & Expected Goals (22 Jul) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✗35% · @3.45

Double chanceVardar Skopje or draw ✗69% · @1.55

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗6% · fair 17.82

Vardar Skopje vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Vardar Skopje welcome Riga to Toše Proeski Arena for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Wednesday 22 July (19:00 WAT).

Current form

Vardar Skopje, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over KuPS, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Riga, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tukums, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Vardar Skopje.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Vardar Skopje 1.5 xG, Riga 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 62%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Vardar Skopje 34%, draw 35%, Riga 31%.
Lower-risk option: Vardar Skopje or draw (69%) at 1.55.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vardar Skopje 1–1 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Vardar Skopje34%fair 2.93 · @2.64

Draw35%fair 2.82 · @3.45

Riga31%fair 3.28 · @2.38

2.73Expected goals

1.46Vardar Skopje xG

1.27Riga xG

62%Both score

53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

2–19%

0–18%

1–28%

2–07%

From our goals model: Vardar Skopje 1.5 – 1.3 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Draw ✗	35%	2.82	3.45 ▲
Double chance	Vardar Skopje or draw ✗	69%	1.44	1.55 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	62%	1.61	1.55
Draw no bet	Vardar Skopje (draw no bet) ✗	53%	1.90	–
Asian handicap	Riga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	75%	1.34	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	53%	1.88	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	68%	1.46	1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	86%	1.17	–
First team to score	Vardar Skopje to score first	50%	2.00	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	42%	2.39	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Vardar Skopje / FT Vardar Skopje ✗	24%	4.09	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–2 ✗	6%	17.82	–

Vardar Skopje – last 6

WLWDDW

14 Jul	@ KuPS	2–0	W
7 Jul	vs KuPS	0–2	L
30 Jun	@ Virtus	3–2	W
27 Jun	@ La Fiorita	1–1	D
8 Apr	@ Pelister	0–0	D
9 Mar	@ Sileks	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Riga – last 6

WWWLWW

18 Jul	vs Tukums	3–1	W
14 Jul	vs Ararat-Armenia	3–2	W
10 Jul	@ Leevon PPK	3–2	W
7 Jul	@ Ararat-Armenia	0–2	L
3 Jul	vs FS Jelgava	3–0	W
29 Jun	@ Auda	2–0	W

2.3Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vardar Skopje vs Riga?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Riga?

On our numbers Vardar Skopje have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Riga 31%.

How many goals will there be in Vardar Skopje vs Riga?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Vardar Skopje vs Riga?

Our predicted score is Vardar Skopje 1–1 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Vardar Skopje vs Riga?

Vardar Skopje vs Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Toše Proeski Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Vardar Skopje v Riga: numbers & prediction

Vardar Skopje