Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hercílio Luz travel to face Joinville on Saturday 12 September in the Copa Santa Catarina, with Arena Joinville the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Joinville, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Blumenau, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Hercílio Luz, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Metropolitano, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Hercílio Luz, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.0 for Joinville.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Joinville 1.6 xG, Hercílio Luz 1.7 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Joinville 35%, draw 23%, Hercílio Luz 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (53%, odds 2.30 – longer than our fair 1.89, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Joinville 1–2 Hercílio Luz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Joinville35%fair 2.85 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Hercílio Luz42%fair 2.36 · @2.62
3.33Expected goals
1.58Joinville xG
1.75Hercílio Luz xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.6 – 1.7 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
42%
2.36
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
Hercílio Luz (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Joinville +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
2.30 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Hercílio Luz to score first
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Joinville – last 6
WLLWLL
5 Sep
vs Blumenau
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
7 Jun
@ São Luiz
1–3
L
30 May
vs Guarany de Bagé
2–0
W
10 Mar
vs São Bernardo
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Marcílio Dias
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hercílio Luz – last 6
WWDWWW
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
23 Jul
vs Caravaggio
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Tubarao
2–0
W
15 Jul
vs Juventus SC
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Guarani de Palhoça
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Hercílio Luz.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.30.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Joinville have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hercílio Luz 42%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–2 Hercílio Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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