Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.30 – our chance 51% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +70%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗51% · @3.30
Double chanceEstrela U23 or draw ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗6% · fair 17.17
Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Tuesday 18 August: Estrela U23 v Leixões U23 in the Liga Revelação U23. In the table, Estrela U23 are 19th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 11 matches; Leixões U23 are 16th (lower half) with 10. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estrela U23, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Academico Viseu U23, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Leixões U23, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Torreense U23, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leixões U23, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Estrela U23.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrela U23 1.5 xG, Leixões U23 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrela U23 27%, draw 51%, Leixões U23 22%.
Lower-risk option: Estrela U23 or draw (78%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Estrela U23 or draw (78%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.27, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrela U23 1–1 Leixões U23. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrela U2327%fair 3.70 · @2.25
Draw51%fair 1.94 · @3.30
Leixões U2322%fair 4.65 · @2.85
2.80Expected goals
1.46Estrela U23 xG
1.34Leixões U23 xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Estrela U23 1.5 – 1.3 Leixões U23 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
51%
1.94
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Estrela U23 or draw✗
78%
1.27
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.70
Draw no bet
Estrela U23 (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Leixões U23 +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Estrela U23 to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estrela U23 / FT Estrela U23✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
6%
17.17
–
Recent results
Estrela U23 – last 6
LLLLWD
10 Aug
@ Academico Viseu U23
0–3
L
28 Apr
@ Marítimo U23
0–1
L
14 Apr
@ Gil Vicente U23
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Farense U23
0–1
L
29 Mar
vs Rio Ave U23
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Vizela U23
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Leixões U23 – last 6
WDWLDL
11 May
@ Torreense U23
2–0
W
28 Apr
@ Academico Viseu U23
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Santa Clara U23
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Benfica U23
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Torreense U23
2–2
D
17 Mar
@ Sporting Braga U23
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela U23 and Leixões U23.
What is the prediction for Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23?
Our pick is Estrela U23 or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23?
On our numbers Estrela U23 have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 51% and Leixões U23 22%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23?
Our predicted score is Estrela U23 1–1 Leixões U23, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23?
Estrela U23 vs Leixões U23 (Liga Revelação U23) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
