UCD 13%Draw 23%Derry City 63%Expected goals 0.89 – 2.09
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultDerry City to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceDerry City or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.13
UCD vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Friday 14 August: UCD v Derry City in the FAI Cup, played at UCD Bowl.
Current form
UCD, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Wexford, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Derry City, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sligo Rovers, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours UCD, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Derry City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCD 0.9 xG, Derry City 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 57% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCD 13%, draw 23%, Derry City 63%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCD 0–2 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCD13%fair 7.50 · @6.60
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @4.20
Derry City63%fair 1.58 · @1.40
2.98Expected goals
0.89UCD xG
2.09Derry City xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: UCD 0.9 – 2.1 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derry City to win✓
63%
1.58
1.40
Double chance
Derry City or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Draw no bet
Derry City (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Derry City -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
First team to score
Derry City to score first
66%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Derry City ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derry City / FT Derry City✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
UCD – last 6
WLDWWL
7 Aug
vs Wexford
4–1
W
3 Aug
vs Treaty United
1–2
L
31 Jul
@ Athlone Town
0–0
D
24 Jul
vs Cork City
5–2
W
17 Jul
@ Treaty United
2–1
W
10 Jul
@ Bray Wanderers
0–6
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 6
WDLLWL
7 Aug
vs Sligo Rovers
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ St Patrick's Athl.
1–1
D
30 Jul
vs HNK Rijeka
0–1
L
23 Jul
@ HNK Rijeka
0–1
L
19 Jul
vs Tolka Rovers
3–0
W
16 Jul
vs CSKA Sofia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCD and Derry City.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCD vs Derry City?
On our numbers UCD have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Derry City 63%.
How many goals will there be in UCD vs Derry City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCD vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is UCD 0–2 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is UCD vs Derry City?
UCD vs Derry City (FAI Cup) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at UCD Bowl.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Galway United1
Bray Wanderers1
Waterford2
Athlone Town1