Provincial Ovalle v Santiago Morning Prediction & Expected Goals (8 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultProvincial Ovalle to win ✓42% · @2.24

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.26

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.86

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.02

Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Santiago Morning travel to face Provincial Ovalle on Sunday 8 November in the Segunda División, with Estadio Diaguita the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Provincial Ovalle are 14th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 12 matches; Santiago Morning are 13th (in the drop zone) with 10.

Current form

Provincial Ovalle, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real San Joaquín, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Santiago Morning, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Lota Schwager, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Provincial Ovalle, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Santiago Morning.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Aug 2026) it ended Santiago Morning 0–0 Provincial Ovalle.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Provincial Ovalle 1.3 xG, Santiago Morning 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Provincial Ovalle 42%, draw 23%, Santiago Morning 35%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.86.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Santiago Morning. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Provincial Ovalle42%fair 2.36 · @2.24

Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.06

Santiago Morning35%fair 2.90 · @2.98

2.40Expected goals

1.28Provincial Ovalle xG

1.12Santiago Morning xG

52%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–110%

0–09%

2–18%

2–07%

From our goals model: Provincial Ovalle 1.3 – 1.1 Santiago Morning expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Provincial Ovalle to win ✓	42%	2.36	2.24
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.26
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	52%	1.92	1.86
Draw no bet	Provincial Ovalle (draw no bet) ✓	55%	1.82	–
Asian handicap	Santiago Morning +1 (Asian handicap)	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.47	1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.75	1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.12	1.06
First team to score	Provincial Ovalle to score first ✗	49%	2.06	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Provincial Ovalle / FT Provincial Ovalle ✗	23%	4.33	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	8%	12.02	–

Provincial Ovalle – last 6

DLLWWD

1 Nov	@ Real San Joaquín	1–1	D
24 Oct	vs General Velásquez	1–2	L
3 Oct	vs Deportes Rengo	1–5	L
26 Sep	@ Lota Schwager	2–1	W
7 Sep	vs Colina	1–0	W
30 Aug	@ Santiago Morning	0–0	D

1.0Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Santiago Morning – last 6

LDLDDD

31 Oct	vs Lota Schwager	1–4	L
25 Oct	@ Colina	1–1	D
11 Oct	vs Real San Joaquín	1–2	L
12 Sep	vs General Velásquez	0–0	D
6 Sep	@ Deportes Rengo	2–2	D
30 Aug	vs Provincial Ovalle	0–0	D

0.8Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Provincial Osorno	12	6	6	0	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	5	7	0	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	6	4	2	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	6	3	3	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	5	5	2	-1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	6	1	5	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	5	3	4	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	5	1	6	-4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	3	4	5	-1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	3	4	5	-2	13
11	Colina	12	3	3	6	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	3	2	7	-7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	2	4	6	-5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Team

Pts

+10

-1

-4

-1

-2

-7

-5

-13

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

On our numbers Provincial Ovalle have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santiago Morning 35%.

How many goals will there be in Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

Our predicted score is Provincial Ovalle 1–1 Santiago Morning, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning?

Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Diaguita.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Provincial Ovalle v Santiago Morning: numbers & prediction