Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Padova to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPadova to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chancePadova or draw ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.06
Padova vs Carrarese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Serie B brings Padova against Carrarese at Stadio Comunale Euganeo. Kick-off: 16:15 WAT. In the table, Padova are 10th, upper half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Carrarese are 17th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Padova, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Palermo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Carrarese, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Benevento, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Padova, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.2 for Carrarese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Padova 1.3 xG, Carrarese 0.6 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Padova 59%, draw 22%, Carrarese 20%.
Lower-risk option: Padova or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Padova to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Padova or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Padova 1–0 Carrarese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Padova59%fair 1.71 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.40
Carrarese20%fair 5.01 · @3.70
1.90Expected goals
1.32Padova xG
0.58Carrarese xG
49%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Padova 1.3 – 0.6 Carrarese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Padova to win✗
59%
1.71
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Padova or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Draw no bet
Padova (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Carrarese +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.05
–
First team to score
Padova to score first✗
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Padova / FT Padova✗
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.06
–
Recent results
Padova – last 6
LWLDWL
19 Sep
@ Palermo
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Ascoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Hellas Verona
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Pisa
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Udinese
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Carrarese – last 6
LLLDLL
19 Sep
vs Benevento
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Catanzaro
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Empoli
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Ascoli
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Mantova
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Torino
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Carrarese.
Our pick is Padova or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Padova vs Carrarese?
On our numbers Padova have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Carrarese 20%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Carrarese?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–0 Carrarese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Carrarese?
Padova vs Carrarese (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
