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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Marseille v Atletico Madrid: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World · Orange Velodrome

Marseille

WWWWL
1–2
FT

Atletico Madrid

LLWLW
Marseille 39%Draw 21%Atletico Madrid 40% Expected goals 1.68 – 1.71
64%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1

Value bet: Marseille to win @ 2.86 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓40% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.05

Marseille vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Marseille welcome Atletico Madrid to Orange Velodrome for a Friendlies Clubs fixture on Friday 14 August (16:30 WAT).

Current form

Marseille, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Athletic Club, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Atletico Madrid, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Manchester City, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Marseille, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Atletico Madrid.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 1.7 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.7 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 39%, draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 40%.
  • GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.48.
  • Price worth noting: Marseille to win @2.86 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Marseille39%fair 2.57 · @2.86
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.70
Atletico Madrid40%fair 2.48 · @2.22
3.39Expected goals
1.68Marseille xG
1.71Atletico Madrid xG
64%Both score
63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%

From our goals model: Marseille 1.7 – 1.7 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAtletico Madrid to win ✓40%2.482.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79%1.261.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓64%1.551.48
Draw no betAtletico Madrid (draw no bet) ✓51%1.96–
Asian handicapMarseille +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗61%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83%1.211.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓63%1.591.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓58%1.711.55
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓76%1.311.22
First team to scoreAtletico Madrid to score first49%2.05–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓37%2.71–
Half-time / full-timeHT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid ✗24%4.24–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8%12.05–

Recent results

Marseille – last 6

WWWWLL
9 Augvs Athletic Club3–1W
30 Julvs Nimes2–1W
17 Mayvs Rennes3–1W
10 Aprvs Metz3–1W
5 Apr@ Monaco1–2L
22 Marvs Lille1–2L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid – last 6

LLWLWW
9 Aug@ Manchester City1–3L
1 Aug@ Manchester United1–2L
29 Julvs Getafe4–1W
24 May@ Villarreal1–5L
17 Mayvs Girona1–0W
12 May@ Osasuna2–1W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Atletico Madrid.

Marseille vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head page →

More Friendlies Clubs predictions

League hub
FT Karlovac 19192 Trnje2 161%1.75X22%3.80217%3.80 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Intercity0 Levante II1 155%1.91X21%3.60224%3.20 1.8–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 56%@1.70 ✗
FT UD Logroñés1 Zaragoza2 121%3.60X17%3.60262%1.80 0.8–1.7xG 2Zaragoza to win 62%@1.80 ✓
FT Reddis2 Saguntino1 164%1.70X24%3.25212%4.50 1.9–0.7xG 1Reddis to win 64%@1.70 ✓
FT Coventry2 Monaco0 143%2.28X20%3.85237%2.68 1.7–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.42 ✗
FT Atalanta1 Athletic Club0 142%2.00X21%3.65237%3.35 1.8–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 82%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?

On our numbers Marseille have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Madrid 40%.

How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?

Our predicted score is Marseille 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?

Marseille vs Atletico Madrid (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Orange Velodrome.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.