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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ponferradina v Real Madrid II: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

Ponferradina

WDLLD
2–2
FT

Real Madrid II

DDWWL
Ponferradina 39%Draw 23%Real Madrid II 38% Expected goals 1.27 – 1.25
53%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.90 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗

4/10Rating
1.85Odds
2

Value bet: Real Madrid II to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultPonferradina to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.81

Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ponferradina welcome Real Madrid II for a Friendlies Clubs fixture on Wednesday 19 August (19:00 WAT).

Current form

Ponferradina, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Marino de Luanco, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Real Madrid II, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Mirandes, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Real Madrid II, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Ponferradina.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Real Madrid II 0–1 Ponferradina.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.3 xG, Real Madrid II 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 39%, draw 23%, Real Madrid II 38%.
  • Price worth noting: Real Madrid II to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (53%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–1 Real Madrid II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ponferradina39%fair 2.55 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Real Madrid II38%fair 2.62 · @2.88
2.53Expected goals
1.27Ponferradina xG
1.25Real Madrid II xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%

From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.3 – 1.3 Real Madrid II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPonferradina to win ✗39%2.552.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.291.28
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗51%1.97–
Draw no betPonferradina (draw no bet)51%1.97–
Asian handicapReal Madrid II +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗53%1.901.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75%1.33–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.13–
First team to scorePonferradina to score first46%2.16–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina ✗21%4.70–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10%9.81–

Recent results

Ponferradina – last 6

WDLLDW
8 Aug@ Marino de Luanco3–0W
1 Augvs Real Avilés1–1D
29 Jul@ Oviedo0–4L
20 Jun@ Celta de Vigo II1–4L
13 Junvs Celta de Vigo II0–0D
6 Jun@ Atlético Madrid II1–0W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Real Madrid II – last 6

DDWWLW
15 Augvs Mirandes0–0D
8 Aug@ Racing Ferrol2–2D
5 Aug@ Deportivo La Coruña II1–0W
31 Jul@ Albacete2–1W
5 Jun@ Sabadell0–3L
29 Mayvs Sabadell2–0W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Mar 2026Real Madrid II v Ponferradina0–1
Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II head-to-head page →

More Friendlies Clubs predictions

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FT Elche II2 FC Cartagena0 112%5.80X20%3.65267%1.48 0.7–1.9xG 2FC Cartagena to win 67%@1.48 ✗
FT RSD Alcalá1 Gimnástica Segoviana1 123%2.62X53%2.90224%2.50 1.0–1.0xG X2Gimnástica Segoviana or draw 77%@1.44 ✓
FT Krasava Odintsovo0 AEL4 137%2.40X20%3.60243%2.40 1.9–2.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 62%@2.00 ✓
FT Coruxo3 Pontevedra1 124%3.25X14%3.50262%1.95 1.2–2.1xG 2Pontevedra to win 62%@1.95 ✗
FT Barcelona2 Al Ahly1 172%1.09X14%9.20214%24.00 2.8–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.

Who will win Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II?

On our numbers Ponferradina have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid II 38%.

How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II?

Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–1 Real Madrid II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II?

Ponferradina vs Real Madrid II (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.