Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Montedio Yamagata welcome Sagan Tosu to Yamagata Park Stadium for a J2 League fixture on Saturday 26 September (09:00 WAT). In the table, Montedio Yamagata are 14th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Sagan Tosu are 13th (lower half) with 20. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Montedio Yamagata, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Kataller Toyama, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Sagan Tosu, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Vissel Kobe, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Montedio Yamagata 1.2 xG, Sagan Tosu 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Montedio Yamagata 37%, draw 23%, Sagan Tosu 40%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Montedio Yamagata37%fair 2.68 · @2.75
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.25
Sagan Tosu40%fair 2.51 · @2.50
2.42Expected goals
1.18Montedio Yamagata xG
1.23Sagan Tosu xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Montedio Yamagata 1.2 – 1.2 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagan Tosu to win✗
40%
2.51
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.73
Draw no bet
Sagan Tosu (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Montedio Yamagata +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.11
First team to score
Sagan Tosu to score first✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu✗
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.44
–
Recent results
Montedio Yamagata – last 6
LLWLWD
19 Sep
vs Kataller Toyama
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Albirex Niigata
0–1
L
9 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Ventforet Kofu
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Imabari
3–0
W
26 Aug
vs Fujieda MYFC
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sagan Tosu – last 6
LLLWWD
23 Sep
@ Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Iwaki
1–3
L
12 Sep
@ Imabari
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Nara Club
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Yokohama FC
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montedio Yamagata and Sagan Tosu.
What is the prediction for Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
On our numbers Montedio Yamagata have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sagan Tosu 40%.
How many goals will there be in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our predicted score is Montedio Yamagata 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Yamagata Park Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
