Value bet: Albirex Niigata to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSagan Tosu to win ✗41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 21 October the J2 League brings Albirex Niigata against Sagan Tosu at Denka Big Swan Stadium. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Albirex Niigata are 1st, leading the league, on 32 points after 16 matches; Sagan Tosu are 13th (lower half) with 20. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Albirex Niigata, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Oita Trinita, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Sagan Tosu, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Omiya Ardija, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Albirex Niigata 1.3 xG, Sagan Tosu 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Albirex Niigata 36%, draw 23%, Sagan Tosu 41%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Albirex Niigata to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Albirex Niigata 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Albirex Niigata36%fair 2.81 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Sagan Tosu41%fair 2.43 · @2.10
2.64Expected goals
1.26Albirex Niigata xG
1.38Sagan Tosu xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Albirex Niigata 1.3 – 1.4 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sagan Tosu to win✗
41%
2.43
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Draw no bet
Sagan Tosu (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Albirex Niigata +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Sagan Tosu to score first✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu✗
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Albirex Niigata – last 6
LDWLDW
17 Oct
@ Oita Trinita
1–5
L
11 Oct
@ Shonan Bellmare
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Tokushima Vortis
2–1
W
29 Sep
@ Matsumoto Yamaga
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Blaublitz Akita
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Jubilo Iwata
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sagan Tosu – last 6
WWWLDL
17 Oct
vs Omiya Ardija
2–1
W
14 Oct
vs Avispa Fukuoka
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Fujieda MYFC
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Blaublitz Akita
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Tokyo Verdy
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Montedio Yamagata
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu.
What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
On our numbers Albirex Niigata have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sagan Tosu 41%.
How many goals will there be in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our predicted score is Albirex Niigata 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Denka Big Swan Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
