Value bet: ES Hammam-Sousse to win @ 3.90 – our chance 34% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultES Metlaoui to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.81
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
ES Hammam-Sousse travel to face ES Metlaoui on Sunday 6 September in the Ligue 1, with Metlaoui Municipal stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:30 WAT. In the table, ES Metlaoui are 12th, lower half, on 6 points after 7 matches; ES Hammam-Sousse are 16th (in the drop zone) with 1.
Current form
ES Metlaoui, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to ES Sahel, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
ES Hammam-Sousse, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Club Africain, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours ES Metlaoui, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for ES Hammam-Sousse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ES Metlaoui 0.9 xG, ES Hammam-Sousse 0.7 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ES Metlaoui 40%, draw 26%, ES Hammam-Sousse 34%.
Price worth noting: ES Hammam-Sousse to win @3.90 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (74%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ES Metlaoui40%fair 2.49 · @2.05
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.75
ES Hammam-Sousse34%fair 2.94 · @3.90
1.60Expected goals
0.86ES Metlaoui xG
0.75ES Hammam-Sousse xG
38%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–020%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: ES Metlaoui 0.9 – 0.7 ES Hammam-Sousse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Metlaoui to win✓
40%
2.49
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
–
Draw no bet
ES Metlaoui (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
ES Hammam-Sousse +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
ES Metlaoui to score first✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.81
–
Recent results
ES Metlaoui – last 6
LLLDWW
30 Aug
@ ES Sahel
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
17 May
vs ES Tunis
1–3
L
14 May
vs JS Kairouanaise
0–0
D
4 May
@ US Monastirienne
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs ES Sahel
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
ES Hammam-Sousse – last 6
LDLDDL
29 Aug
@ Club Africain
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs US Monastirienne
0–0
D
29 May
vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2–3
L
11 May
@ CS Hammam-Lif
1–1
D
1 May
vs Sfax Railways
2–2
D
27 Apr
@ Kerkennah
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Metlaoui and ES Hammam-Sousse.
What is the prediction for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
On our numbers ES Metlaoui have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and ES Hammam-Sousse 34%.
How many goals will there be in ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Our predicted score is ES Metlaoui 0–0 ES Hammam-Sousse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Metlaoui Municipal stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
