Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓64% · @1.41
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓84% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.47
Sao Paulo vs Bolívar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bolívar travel to face Sao Paulo on Wednesday 19 August in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Coritiba, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Bolívar, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over San Antonio Bulo Bulo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Bolívar, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Sao Paulo.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Aug 2026) it ended Bolívar 1–1 Sao Paulo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.6 xG, Bolívar 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 64%, draw 20%, Bolívar 16%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.35, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–0 Bolívar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo64%fair 1.55 · @1.41
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @4.80
Bolívar16%fair 6.32 · @6.50
2.27Expected goals
1.65Sao Paulo xG
0.62Bolívar xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.6 – 0.6 Bolívar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Bolívar 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Bolívar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Sao Paulo vs Bolívar (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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