Value bet: Novara to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRenate to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.13
Renate vs Novara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Novara travel to face Renate on Monday 7 September in the Serie C Girone A, with Mino Favini the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Renate are 17th, lower half, on 11 points after 13 matches; Novara are 14th (lower half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Renate, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Cittadella, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Novara, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Livorno, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Novara, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Renate.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Renate 1.3 xG, Novara 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Renate 39%, draw 25%, Novara 36%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Novara to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.82, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Renate 1–1 Novara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Renate39%fair 2.55 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.75
Novara36%fair 2.79 · @3.00
2.50Expected goals
1.29Renate xG
1.21Novara xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Renate 1.3 – 1.2 Novara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Renate to win✗
39%
2.55
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.91
Draw no bet
Renate (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Novara +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Renate to score first
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Renate / FT Renate✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Renate – last 6
LLLDLD
3 Sep
@ Cittadella
1–4
L
31 Aug
vs Cittadella
0–1
L
21 Aug
@ Alcione
1–3
L
15 Aug
@ Lumezzane
2–2
D
13 May
vs Casarano
0–3
L
19 Apr
@ Trento
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Novara – last 6
DDLWLW
3 Sep
vs Livorno
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Folgore Caratese
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Juventus U23
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Alcione
1–0
W
5 Aug
@ Virtus Entella
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Sampdoria
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Novara.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Renate vs Novara?
On our numbers Renate have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Novara 36%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Novara?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Renate vs Novara?
Our predicted score is Renate 1–1 Novara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Renate vs Novara?
Renate vs Novara (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
