Value bet: Desenzano Calvina to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFolgore Caratese to win ✗39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 3 October the Serie C Girone A brings Folgore Caratese against Desenzano Calvina. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Folgore Caratese are 20th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 13 matches; Desenzano Calvina are 13th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Folgore Caratese, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lumezzane, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Desenzano Calvina, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Juventus U23, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Folgore Caratese 1.0 xG, Desenzano Calvina 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Folgore Caratese 39%, draw 25%, Desenzano Calvina 36%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Desenzano Calvina to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (50%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Folgore Caratese 1–0 Desenzano Calvina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Folgore Caratese39%fair 2.55 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @2.80
Desenzano Calvina36%fair 2.76 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.03Folgore Caratese xG
0.97Desenzano Calvina xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Folgore Caratese 1.0 – 1.0 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Folgore Caratese to win✗
39%
2.55
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.75
Draw no bet
Folgore Caratese (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Desenzano Calvina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Folgore Caratese to score first
44%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.18
–
Recent results
Folgore Caratese – last 6
WDDLLD
26 Sep
@ Lumezzane
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Giana Erminio
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Pergolettese
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Alcione
2–3
L
7 Sep
@ PRO Vercelli
0–1
L
31 Aug
@ Novara
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Desenzano Calvina – last 6
DDLWLW
26 Sep
vs Juventus U23
0–0
D
21 Sep
@ Treviso
0–0
D
17 Sep
vs Lecco
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Union Brescia
0–1
L
3 Sep
@ Trento
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Folgore Caratese and Desenzano Calvina.
What is the prediction for Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
On our numbers Folgore Caratese have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Desenzano Calvina 36%.
How many goals will there be in Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our predicted score is Folgore Caratese 1–0 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
