Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Renate to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRenate to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceRenate or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.95
Renate vs Giana Erminio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Serie C Girone A brings Renate against Giana Erminio at Mino Favini. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT. In the table, Renate are 17th, lower half, on 11 points after 13 matches; Giana Erminio are 16th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Renate, last 5: DLLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ospitaletto, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Giana Erminio, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Treviso, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Renate 1.5 xG, Giana Erminio 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Renate 61%, draw 23%, Giana Erminio 16%.
Lower-risk option: Renate or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Renate to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Renate or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Renate61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.00
Giana Erminio16%fair 6.26 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.52Renate xG
0.61Giana Erminio xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Renate 1.5 – 0.6 Giana Erminio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Renate to win✗
61%
1.64
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Renate or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Draw no bet
Renate (draw no bet)
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Giana Erminio +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Renate to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Renate / FT Renate✗
36%
2.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Renate – last 6
DLLDDL
3 Oct
@ Ospitaletto
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Treviso
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
1–2
L
17 Sep
vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Lumezzane
2–2
D
7 Sep
vs Novara
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Giana Erminio – last 6
DDDDLL
4 Oct
@ Treviso
0–0
D
26 Sep
vs PRO Vercelli
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Folgore Caratese
1–1
D
17 Sep
vs Trento
2–2
D
13 Sep
@ Lecco
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Renate and Giana Erminio.
What is the prediction for Renate vs Giana Erminio?
Our pick is Renate or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Renate vs Giana Erminio?
On our numbers Renate have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Giana Erminio 16%.
How many goals will there be in Renate vs Giana Erminio?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Renate vs Giana Erminio?
Our predicted score is Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Renate vs Giana Erminio?
Renate vs Giana Erminio (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Mino Favini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
