Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Grosseto to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGrosseto to win ✓39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.40
Pineto vs Grosseto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Saturday 26 September: Pineto v Grosseto in the Serie C Girone B, played at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani. In the table, Pineto are 11th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Grosseto are 3rd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Pineto, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Campobasso FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Grosseto, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Perugia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Grosseto, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Pineto.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pineto 1.1 xG, Grosseto 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pineto 38%, draw 23%, Grosseto 39%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Grosseto to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pineto 1–1 Grosseto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pineto38%fair 2.63 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Grosseto39%fair 2.59 · @3.00
2.22Expected goals
1.10Pineto xG
1.12Grosseto xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Pineto 1.1 – 1.1 Grosseto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grosseto to win✓
39%
2.59
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Grosseto (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Pineto +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Grosseto to score first✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grosseto / FT Grosseto✓
20%
4.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.40
–
Recent results
Pineto – last 6
DDWLDD
20 Sep
@ Campobasso FC
2–2
D
16 Sep
vs Forli
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Sambenedettese
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Perugia
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Livorno
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Latina
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Grosseto – last 6
WDDLWW
20 Sep
vs Perugia
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Pianese
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs Latina
1–4
L
6 Sep
vs Torres
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Ostia Mare
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pineto and Grosseto.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pineto vs Grosseto?
On our numbers Pineto have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Grosseto 39%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Grosseto?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Grosseto?
Our predicted score is Pineto 1–1 Grosseto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Pineto vs Grosseto?
Pineto vs Grosseto (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
