Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
1
Value bet: Gubbio to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGubbio to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Gubbio vs Perugia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Perugia travel to face Gubbio on Saturday 3 October in the Serie C Girone B, with Stadio Pietro Barbetti the venue – the ball rolls at 13:30 WAT. In the table, Gubbio are 19th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 13 matches; Perugia are 12th (lower half) with 17.
Current form
Gubbio, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ravenna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Perugia, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Reggiana, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Gubbio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Perugia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gubbio 1.4 xG, Perugia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gubbio 40%, draw 24%, Perugia 36%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Gubbio to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.68, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gubbio 1–1 Perugia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gubbio40%fair 2.50 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.90
Perugia36%fair 2.79 · @2.40
2.79Expected goals
1.44Gubbio xG
1.35Perugia xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Gubbio 1.4 – 1.3 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gubbio to win✗
40%
2.50
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.75
Draw no bet
Gubbio (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Perugia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Gubbio to score first
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gubbio / FT Gubbio✗
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.62
–
Recent results
Gubbio – last 6
LLDWWW
27 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Ostia Mare
0–2
L
16 Sep
@ Pescara
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Latina
3–1
W
5 Sep
@ Campobasso FC
4–2
W
2 Sep
vs Vis Pesaro
5–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Perugia – last 6
WLLLWD
27 Sep
vs Reggiana
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Grosseto
0–2
L
16 Sep
vs Spezia
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Vis Pesaro
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gubbio and Perugia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Gubbio vs Perugia?
On our numbers Gubbio have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Perugia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Gubbio vs Perugia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gubbio vs Perugia?
Our predicted score is Gubbio 1–1 Perugia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Gubbio vs Perugia?
Gubbio vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
