Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Perugia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPerugia to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chancePerugia or draw ✗87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.93
Perugia vs Vado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Perugia welcome Vado to Stadio Renato Curi for a Serie C Girone B fixture on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT). In the table, Perugia are 12th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Vado are 13th (lower half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Perugia, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Gubbio, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Vado, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Forli, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Perugia, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Vado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Perugia 1.6 xG, Vado 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Perugia 63%, draw 24%, Vado 13%.
Lower-risk option: Perugia or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Perugia to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Perugia or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Perugia 1–0 Vado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Perugia63%fair 1.59 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.00
Vado13%fair 7.84 · @4.00
2.19Expected goals
1.62Perugia xG
0.57Vado xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.6 – 0.6 Vado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Perugia to win✗
63%
1.59
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Perugia or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.95
Draw no bet
Perugia (draw no bet)✗
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Perugia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Perugia to score first✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Perugia / FT Perugia✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.93
–
Recent results
Perugia – last 6
WWLLLW
3 Oct
@ Gubbio
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Reggiana
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Grosseto
0–2
L
16 Sep
vs Spezia
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vado – last 6
WDLLLL
3 Oct
vs Forli
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Torres
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Pescara
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Livorno
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Reggiana
1–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Vado.
Our pick is Perugia or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Perugia vs Vado?
On our numbers Perugia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vado 13%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Vado?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Vado?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–0 Vado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Vado?
Perugia vs Vado (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
