Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultPineto to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chancePineto or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
Pineto vs Gubbio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pineto welcome Gubbio to Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani for a Serie C Girone B fixture on Friday 23 October (19:30 WAT). In the table, Pineto are 11th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Gubbio are 19th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Pineto, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Reggiana, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Gubbio, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atalanta II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Pineto, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.2 for Gubbio.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Aug 2026) it ended Pineto 1–2 Gubbio. The last 2 head-to-heads: Pineto 0 wins, Gubbio 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pineto 1.7 xG, Gubbio 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pineto 61%, draw 22%, Gubbio 16%.
Lower-risk option: Pineto or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pineto to win (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pineto 1–0 Gubbio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pineto61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.10
Gubbio16%fair 6.15 · @4.40
2.45Expected goals
1.71Pineto xG
0.74Gubbio xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Pineto 1.7 – 0.7 Gubbio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Pineto to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Pineto vs Gubbio?
On our numbers Pineto have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gubbio 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Gubbio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Gubbio?
Our predicted score is Pineto 1–0 Gubbio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Pineto vs Gubbio?
Pineto vs Gubbio (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
