Value bet: Bari to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSalernitana to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 12.64
Salernitana vs Bari: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bari travel to face Salernitana on Sunday 4 October in the Serie C Girone C, with Stadio Arechi the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Salernitana are 14th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Bari are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Salernitana, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Crotone, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Bari, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cosenza, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Bari, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Salernitana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Salernitana 1.2 xG, Bari 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Salernitana 40%, draw 22%, Bari 38%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Bari to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Salernitana 1–1 Bari. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Salernitana40%fair 2.48 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.25
Bari38%fair 2.63 · @3.00
2.36Expected goals
1.20Salernitana xG
1.16Bari xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Salernitana 1.2 – 1.2 Bari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Salernitana to win✓
40%
2.48
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.73
Draw no bet
Salernitana (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Bari +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Salernitana to score first✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Salernitana / FT Salernitana✗
21%
4.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
12.64
–
Recent results
Salernitana – last 6
LWDWDD
26 Sep
@ Crotone
1–2
L
19 Sep
vs Giugliano
1–0
W
15 Sep
@ Barletta
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Potenza
4–2
W
6 Sep
vs Cavese
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Foggia
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bari – last 6
WWDWWD
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Team Altamura
3–0
W
5 Sep
vs Casarano
1–0
W
1 Sep
vs AZ Picerno
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Salernitana and Bari.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Salernitana vs Bari?
On our numbers Salernitana have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bari 38%.
How many goals will there be in Salernitana vs Bari?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Salernitana vs Bari?
Our predicted score is Salernitana 1–1 Bari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Salernitana vs Bari?
Salernitana vs Bari (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Arechi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
