Bari 65%Draw 22%Crotone 13%Expected goals 1.80 – 0.64
65%
Betarazi pick
Bari to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultBari to win ✗65% · @1.67
Double chanceBari or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.39
Bari vs Crotone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bari welcome Crotone to Stadio San Nicola for a Serie C Girone C fixture on Sunday 18 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Bari are 2nd, among the top four, on 23 points after 13 matches; Crotone are 20th (in the drop zone) with 1. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bari, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Giugliano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Crotone, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Audace Cerignola, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Bari, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Crotone.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bari 1.8 xG, Crotone 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bari 65%, draw 22%, Crotone 13%.
Lower-risk option: Bari or draw (87%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bari to win (65%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bari 1–0 Crotone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bari65%fair 1.53 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Crotone13%fair 7.70 · @4.40
2.44Expected goals
1.80Bari xG
0.64Crotone xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Bari 1.8 – 0.6 Crotone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✗
65%
1.53
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Bari or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Draw no bet
Bari (draw no bet)
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Bari -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Bari to score first✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Bari ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.39
–
Recent results
Bari – last 6
WLWWDW
10 Oct
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Salernitana
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Team Altamura
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Crotone – last 6
LLWDLD
10 Oct
vs Audace Cerignola
2–3
L
3 Oct
@ Catania
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Salernitana
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ SS Monopoli
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Inter U23
0–2
L
12 Sep
@ Savoia
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Crotone.
Our pick is Bari to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Bari vs Crotone?
On our numbers Bari have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Crotone 13%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Crotone?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Crotone?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–0 Crotone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Crotone?
Bari vs Crotone (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
