Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Azerbaijan to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAzerbaijan to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceAzerbaijan or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗8% · fair 12.64
Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Azerbaijan welcome Tajikistan to Palms Sports Arena for a Friendlies fixture on Wednesday 23 September (17:00 WAT).
Current form
Azerbaijan, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over San Marino, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Tajikistan, last 3: DWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with India, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Azerbaijan 2.0 xG, Tajikistan 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Azerbaijan 64%, draw 22%, Tajikistan 14%.
Lower-risk option: Azerbaijan or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Azerbaijan to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Azerbaijan or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Azerbaijan64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.40
Tajikistan14%fair 7.09 · @4.20
2.75Expected goals
1.95Azerbaijan xG
0.80Tajikistan xG
49%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Azerbaijan 2.0 – 0.8 Tajikistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Azerbaijan to win✓
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Azerbaijan or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Draw no bet
Azerbaijan (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Azerbaijan -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Azerbaijan to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Azerbaijan ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Azerbaijan / FT Azerbaijan✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
8%
12.64
–
Recent results
Azerbaijan – last 3
WLW
9 Jun
vs San Marino
2–1
W
5 Jun
vs Malta
0–2
L
27 Mar
vs St. Lucia
6–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tajikistan – last 3
DWD
9 Jun
vs India
1–1
D
5 Jun
vs India
3–1
W
31 Mar
vs Philippines
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Azerbaijan and Tajikistan.
What is the prediction for Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Our pick is Azerbaijan or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
On our numbers Azerbaijan have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tajikistan 14%.
How many goals will there be in Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Our predicted score is Azerbaijan 1–0 Tajikistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan?
Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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