Gibraltar 67%Draw 20%Sao Tome and Principe 13%Expected goals 3.05 – 1.45
67%
Betarazi pick
Gibraltar to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 60% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +36%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGibraltar to win ✗67% · @1.25
Double chanceGibraltar or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 13.11
Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gibraltar welcome Sao Tome and Principe to Europa Point Stadium for a Friendlies fixture on Wednesday 23 September (17:00 WAT).
Current form
Gibraltar, last 4: WWLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Cayman Islands, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gibraltar 3.1 xG, Sao Tome and Principe 1.4 xG – a total near 4.5. That is an open game on paper: 83% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gibraltar 67%, draw 20%, Sao Tome and Principe 13%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Gibraltar to win (67%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gibraltar 3–1 Sao Tome and Principe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gibraltar67%fair 1.49 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @5.00
Sao Tome and Principe13%fair 7.97 · @11.00
4.50Expected goals
3.05Gibraltar xG
1.45Sao Tome and Principe xG
60%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–18%
2–17%
4–16%
3–26%
2–25%
3–05%
From our goals model: Gibraltar 3.1 – 1.4 Sao Tome and Principe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gibraltar to win✗
67%
1.49
1.25
Double chance
Gibraltar or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Gibraltar (draw no bet)
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Gibraltar -1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
First team to score
Gibraltar to score first✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Gibraltar ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gibraltar / FT Gibraltar✗
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
13.11
–
Recent results
Gibraltar – last 4
WWLL
6 Jun
vs Cayman Islands
4–1
W
3 Jun
vs British Virgin Islands
4–0
W
31 Mar
@ Latvia
0–1
L
26 Mar
vs Latvia
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sao Tome and Principe – last 2
LL
31 Mar
@ Ethiopia
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Ethiopia
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gibraltar and Sao Tome and Principe.
What is the prediction for Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Our pick is Gibraltar to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
On our numbers Gibraltar have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sao Tome and Principe 13%.
How many goals will there be in Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Our predicted score is Gibraltar 3–1 Sao Tome and Principe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Europa Point Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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