Burnley W 57%Draw 25%Durham W 18%Expected goals 3.65 – 2.35
82%
Betarazi pick
Burnley W or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.62 – our chance 73% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBurnley W to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceBurnley W or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.62
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✓6% · fair 18.03
Burnley W vs Durham W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Burnley W v Durham W in the WSL Cup, played at Turf Moor.
Current form
Burnley W, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Nottingham Forest W, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Durham W, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Newcastle United W, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley W 3.6 xG, Durham W 2.4 xG – a total near 6.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 94% and GG at 73%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley W 57%, draw 25%, Durham W 18%.
Lower-risk option: Burnley W or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (73%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.62 – the bookmaker implies 62%, our ratings say 73%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Burnley W or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley W 3–2 Durham W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley W57%fair 1.74 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Durham W18%fair 5.63 · @3.60
6.00Expected goals
3.65Burnley W xG
2.35Durham W xG
73%Both score
94%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–26%
4–25%
3–15%
2–25%
3–34%
4–14%
From our goals model: Burnley W 3.6 – 2.4 Durham W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley W to win✓
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Burnley W or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
73%
1.38
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Burnley W (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Burnley W -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
First team to score
Burnley W to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Burnley W ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley W / FT Burnley W✓
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–2✓
6%
18.03
–
Recent results
Burnley W – last 5
LDLLD
4 Oct
@ Nottingham Forest W
0–2
L
26 Sep
vs Bristol City W
0–0
D
18 Sep
@ Wolverhampton W
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs Sunderland W
1–2
L
4 Sep
@ Watford W
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Durham W – last 6
LLLLLL
4 Oct
vs Newcastle United W
0–3
L
30 Sep
vs Manchester United W
1–5
L
27 Sep
@ Sheffield United W
1–4
L
20 Sep
vs Nottingham Forest W
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Leicester City FC W
2–4
L
6 Sep
vs Southampton W
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley W and Durham W.
Our pick is Burnley W or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley W vs Durham W?
On our numbers Burnley W have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Durham W 18%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley W vs Durham W?
We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley W vs Durham W?
Our predicted score is Burnley W 3–2 Durham W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.
When is Burnley W vs Durham W?
Burnley W vs Durham W (WSL Cup) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sheffield United W0
Nottingham Forest W0
Newcastle United W0
Sunderland W1
Bristol City W1
Southampton W1