Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Caudal to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCaudal to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.84
Covadonga vs Caudal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Tercera División RFEF Group 2 brings Covadonga against Caudal. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Covadonga are 1st, leading the league, on 23 points after 10 matches; Caudal are 5th (upper half) with 18.
Current form
Covadonga, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Langreo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Caudal, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ceares, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Caudal, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Covadonga.
Head to head
When they last met (7 Jun 2026) it ended Covadonga 2–4 Caudal. The last 3 head-to-heads: Covadonga 0 wins, Caudal 3, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Covadonga 1.7 xG, Caudal 1.8 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Covadonga 35%, draw 23%, Caudal 42%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Caudal to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Covadonga 1–1 Caudal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Covadonga35%fair 2.85 · @2.45
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Caudal42%fair 2.40 · @2.62
3.50Expected goals
1.67Covadonga xG
1.83Caudal xG
65%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–35%
From our goals model: Covadonga 1.7 – 1.8 Caudal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Covadonga vs Caudal?
On our numbers Covadonga have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Caudal 42%.
How many goals will there be in Covadonga vs Caudal?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Covadonga vs Caudal?
Our predicted score is Covadonga 1–1 Caudal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Covadonga vs Caudal?
Covadonga vs Caudal (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
