Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultMosconia to win ✗65% · @1.65
Double chanceMosconia or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.75
Astur vs Mosconia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:15 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Astur v Mosconia in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2. In the table, Astur are 16th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 10 matches; Mosconia are 7th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Astur, last 4: DLLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with San Martín, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Mosconia, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Andes, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Mosconia, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Astur.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Astur 0.7 xG, Mosconia 1.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Astur 15%, draw 20%, Mosconia 65%.
Lower-risk option: Mosconia or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mosconia to win (65%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Astur 0–1 Mosconia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Astur15%fair 6.65 · @4.50
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.50
Mosconia65%fair 1.53 · @1.65
2.50Expected goals
0.70Astur xG
1.80Mosconia xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Astur 0.7 – 1.8 Mosconia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mosconia to win✗
65%
1.53
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Mosconia or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.73
Draw no bet
Mosconia (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Mosconia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Mosconia to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Mosconia ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mosconia / FT Mosconia✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.75
–
Recent results
Astur – last 4
DLLL
27 Sep
@ San Martín
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Siero
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Colunga
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Caudal
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Mosconia – last 6
WDWWLL
26 Sep
vs Andes
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Condal
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Gijón Industrial
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Llanes
5–1
W
15 Aug
vs Real Avilés
0–2
L
24 May
@ Covadonga
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Astur and Mosconia.
Our pick is Mosconia to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Astur vs Mosconia?
On our numbers Astur have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Mosconia 65%.
How many goals will there be in Astur vs Mosconia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Astur vs Mosconia?
Our predicted score is Astur 0–1 Mosconia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Astur vs Mosconia?
Astur vs Mosconia (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
