Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTropezón to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceTropezón or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Castro vs Tropezón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tropezón travel to face Castro on Sunday 4 October in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Castro are 12th, lower half, on 8 points after 10 matches; Tropezón are 1st (leading the league) with 26. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Castro, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atlético Mineros, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Tropezón, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Revilla, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tropezón, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Castro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castro 0.7 xG, Tropezón 1.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castro 14%, draw 23%, Tropezón 63%.
Lower-risk option: Tropezón or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Tropezón to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tropezón or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castro 0–1 Tropezón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castro14%fair 7.02 · @3.90
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.25
Tropezón63%fair 1.59 · @1.83
2.38Expected goals
0.67Castro xG
1.71Tropezón xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–214%
1–111%
0–09%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Castro 0.7 – 1.7 Tropezón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tropezón to win✓
63%
1.59
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Tropezón or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.05
Draw no bet
Tropezón (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Tropezón -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Tropezón to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Tropezón ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tropezón / FT Tropezón✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Castro – last 6
LDWDWD
27 Sep
vs Atlético Mineros
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Revilla
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Solares
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Selaya
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Selaya
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Bezana
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tropezón – last 6
WWWWLW
27 Sep
vs Revilla
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Solares
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Selaya
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Laredo
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Arnedo
0–1
L
13 Jun
vs Arnedo
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castro and Tropezón.
Our pick is Tropezón or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Castro vs Tropezón?
On our numbers Castro have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tropezón 63%.
How many goals will there be in Castro vs Tropezón?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castro vs Tropezón?
Our predicted score is Castro 0–1 Tropezón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Castro vs Tropezón?
Castro vs Tropezón (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
