Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultSelaya to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chanceSelaya or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Selaya v Naval Reinosa in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Selaya are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 10 matches; Naval Reinosa are 18th (in the drop zone) with 6. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Selaya, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Escobedo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Naval Reinosa, last 4: LLLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Laredo, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Selaya, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Naval Reinosa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Selaya 1.7 xG, Naval Reinosa 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 44%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Selaya 61%, draw 24%, Naval Reinosa 15%.
Lower-risk option: Selaya or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Selaya to win (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Selaya 1–0 Naval Reinosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Selaya61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.40
Naval Reinosa15%fair 6.81 · @3.90
2.47Expected goals
1.75Selaya xG
0.73Naval Reinosa xG
44%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Selaya 1.7 – 0.7 Naval Reinosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Selaya to win✓
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Selaya or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
–
Draw no bet
Selaya (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Selaya -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Selaya to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Selaya ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Selaya / FT Selaya✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.79
–
Recent results
Selaya – last 6
LWLDWL
26 Sep
@ Escobedo
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Atlético Albericia
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Tropezón
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Castro
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Noja
3–0
W
29 Mar
@ Castro
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Naval Reinosa – last 4
LLLD
26 Sep
vs Laredo
0–4
L
19 Sep
@ Bezana
2–3
L
13 Sep
vs Torina
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Velarde
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Selaya and Naval Reinosa.
What is the prediction for Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Our pick is Selaya to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
On our numbers Selaya have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Naval Reinosa 15%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Our predicted score is Selaya 1–0 Naval Reinosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Naval Reinosa?
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
