Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultDerio to win ✓55% · @1.91
Double chanceDerio or draw ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.86
Derio vs Santurtzi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derio welcome Santurtzi for a Tercera División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 20 September (19:00 WAT). In the table, Derio are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 10 matches; Santurtzi are 16th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Derio, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Salamanca UDS, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Santurtzi, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Durango, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Santurtzi 1–1 Derio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derio 1.2 xG, Santurtzi 0.6 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derio 55%, draw 24%, Santurtzi 21%.
Lower-risk option: Derio or draw (79%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Derio or draw (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derio 1–0 Santurtzi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derio55%fair 1.83 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.10
Santurtzi21%fair 4.76 · @3.60
1.75Expected goals
1.18Derio xG
0.57Santurtzi xG
43%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
0–017%
2–012%
1–112%
0–110%
2–17%
From our goals model: Derio 1.2 – 0.6 Santurtzi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Derio or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derio vs Santurtzi?
On our numbers Derio have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santurtzi 21%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Santurtzi?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Santurtzi?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–0 Santurtzi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Santurtzi?
Derio vs Santurtzi (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
