Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultDerio to win ✓45% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.64
Aretxabaleta vs Derio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derio travel to face Aretxabaleta on Saturday 26 September in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Aretxabaleta are 7th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Derio are 5th (upper half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aretxabaleta, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Durango, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Derio, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Santurtzi, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Aretxabaleta 1–2 Derio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aretxabaleta 0.7 xG, Derio 0.9 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aretxabaleta 33%, draw 23%, Derio 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aretxabaleta 0–0 Derio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aretxabaleta33%fair 3.06 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Derio45%fair 2.23 · @2.50
1.67Expected goals
0.73Aretxabaleta xG
0.94Derio xG
38%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–019%
0–118%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Aretxabaleta 0.7 – 0.9 Derio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
On our numbers Aretxabaleta have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Derio 45%.
How many goals will there be in Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
Our predicted score is Aretxabaleta 0–0 Derio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Aretxabaleta vs Derio?
Aretxabaleta vs Derio (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
