Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.36
Derio vs Beasain: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derio welcome Beasain for a Tercera División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 4 October (17:30 WAT). In the table, Derio are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 10 matches; Beasain are 9th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Derio, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Aretxabaleta, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Beasain, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Durango, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Derio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Beasain.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derio 0.8 xG, Beasain 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 74%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derio 37%, draw 23%, Beasain 40%.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (55%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derio 0–0 Beasain. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derio37%fair 2.71 · @2.50
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.10
Beasain40%fair 2.49 · @2.50
1.75Expected goals
0.85Derio xG
0.90Beasain xG
45%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–017%
0–116%
1–015%
1–113%
0–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Derio 0.8 – 0.9 Beasain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beasain to win✗
40%
2.49
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Draw no bet
Beasain (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Derio +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Beasain to score first✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.36
–
Recent results
Derio – last 6
WWDDDD
26 Sep
@ Aretxabaleta
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Santurtzi
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Salamanca UDS
3–3
D
12 Sep
@ San Ignacio
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Compostela
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Real Sociedad III
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Beasain – last 6
LLDWDL
26 Sep
vs Durango
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Touring
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Aretxabaleta
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Santurtzi
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Lagun Onak
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Valle Egüés
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Beasain.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Derio vs Beasain?
On our numbers Derio have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Beasain 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Beasain?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Beasain?
Our predicted score is Derio 0–0 Beasain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Beasain?
Derio vs Beasain (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
