Value bet: Pasaia KE to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAretxabaleta to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.45
Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aretxabaleta welcome Pasaia KE for a Tercera División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 11 October (15:30 WAT). In the table, Aretxabaleta are 7th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Pasaia KE are 15th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Aretxabaleta, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lagun Onak, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Pasaia KE, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Santurtzi, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pasaia KE, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Aretxabaleta.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Apr 2026) it ended Pasaia KE 3–2 Aretxabaleta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aretxabaleta 1.1 xG, Pasaia KE 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aretxabaleta 44%, draw 23%, Pasaia KE 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Pasaia KE to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aretxabaleta 1–1 Pasaia KE. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aretxabaleta44%fair 2.26 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Pasaia KE32%fair 3.08 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.11Aretxabaleta xG
0.89Pasaia KE xG
56%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aretxabaleta 1.1 – 0.9 Pasaia KE expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
On our numbers Aretxabaleta have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pasaia KE 32%.
How many goals will there be in Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Our predicted score is Aretxabaleta 1–1 Pasaia KE, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE?
Aretxabaleta vs Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
