Value bet: Torrijos to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTarancón to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 4.94
Torrijos vs Tarancón: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Torrijos welcome Tarancón for a Tercera División RFEF Group 18 fixture on Sunday 13 September (16:30 WAT). In the table, Torrijos are 10th, lower half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Tarancón are 7th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tarancón, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Illescas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Torrijos 0.4 xG, Tarancón 0.6 xG – a total near 1.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 92% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Torrijos 34%, draw 26%, Tarancón 40%.
GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Torrijos to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (57%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Torrijos 0–0 Tarancón. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Torrijos34%fair 2.97 · @3.30
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.70
Tarancón40%fair 2.47 · @2.25
1.00Expected goals
0.45Torrijos xG
0.55Tarancón xG
43%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–037%
0–120%
1–017%
1–19%
0–26%
2–04%
From our goals model: Torrijos 0.4 – 0.6 Tarancón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tarancón to win✗
40%
2.47
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Draw no bet
Tarancón (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Torrijos +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
100%
1.00
–
First team to score
No goal✗
37%
2.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
4.94
–
Recent results
Torrijos – last 1
W
5 Sep
@ Guadalajara II
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tarancón – last 5
LDLLW
5 Sep
vs Illescas
0–1
L
17 May
@ Manchego
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Villarrubia
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Calvo Sotelo
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Illescas
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torrijos and Tarancón.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Torrijos vs Tarancón?
On our numbers Torrijos have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tarancón 40%.
How many goals will there be in Torrijos vs Tarancón?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torrijos vs Tarancón?
Our predicted score is Torrijos 0–0 Tarancón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Torrijos vs Tarancón?
Torrijos vs Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
