Groene Ster v Gemert Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultGroene Ster to win ✗60% · @1.95

Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.84

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53

Groene Ster vs Gemert: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Gemert travel to face Groene Ster on Sunday 27 September in the Derde Divisie Saturday – the ball rolls at 13:30 WAT. In the table, Groene Ster are 16th, upper half, on 9 points after 12 matches; Gemert are 9th (upper half) with 16.

Current form

Groene Ster, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to AFC Amsterdam, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Gemert, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Ijsselmeervogels, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Groene Ster 2.2 xG, Gemert 1.3 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 54% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Groene Ster 60%, draw 16%, Gemert 24%.
Price worth noting: Groene Ster to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Groene Ster 2–1 Gemert. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Groene Ster60%fair 1.67 · @1.95

Draw16%fair 6.32 · @3.90

Gemert24%fair 4.09 · @2.88

3.50Expected goals

2.19Groene Ster xG

1.31Gemert xG

54%Both score

67%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%

1–19%

2–07%

3–17%

1–07%

2–26%

From our goals model: Groene Ster 2.2 – 1.3 Gemert expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Groene Ster to win ✗	60%	1.67	1.95 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	84%	1.19	1.18
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.84	–
Draw no bet	Groene Ster (draw no bet) ✗	71%	1.41	–
Asian handicap	Gemert +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.55	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	67%	1.49	1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	54%	1.86	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	73%	1.38	–
First team to score	Groene Ster to score first	61%	1.65	–
Half-time result	Groene Ster ahead at half-time ✗	44%	2.29	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Groene Ster / FT Groene Ster ✗	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.53	–

Groene Ster – last 6

LDWDWD

22 Sep	vs AFC Amsterdam	1–6	L
19 Sep	@ EVV	1–1	D
12 Sep	vs Zwaluwen	1–0	W
5 Sep	@ TOGB	3–3	D
2 Sep	vs Heerjansdam	2–1	W
30 Aug	vs Vvsb	3–3	D

1.8Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Gemert – last 6

WDWDWL

23 Sep	@ Ijsselmeervogels	3–0	W
20 Sep	vs UDI '19	1–1	D
12 Sep	@ Poortugaal	2–1	W
6 Sep	vs UNA	1–1	D
2 Sep	@ FC 's-Gravenzande	2–0	W
30 Aug	@ Dongen	2–3	L

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ACV	12	8	3	1	+19	27
2	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	+10	27
3	Harkemase Boys	12	8	2	2	+9	26
4	TEC	12	7	3	2	+15	24
5	Excelsior '31	12	7	1	4	+12	22
6	SC Genemuiden	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Sportlust '46	12	6	4	2	+3	22
8	Purmersteijn	12	6	3	3	+7	21
9	Sparta Nijkerk	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	ADO '20	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Hercules	12	5	1	6	-6	16
12	Hoogeveen	12	4	2	6	-1	14
13	Eemdijk	12	4	1	7	-12	13
14	DVS 33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Hollandia	12	2	2	8	-13	8
17	Dovo	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	SVZW	12	0	1	11	-21	1
1	FC Lisse	12	10	1	1	+22	31
2	Noordwijk	12	10	1	1	+22	31
3	Excelsior Maassluis	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Rijnvogels	12	7	3	2	+16	24
5	Zwaluwen	12	7	1	4	0	22
6	Poortugaal	12	7	0	5	+4	21
7	UDI '19	12	6	2	4	+9	20
8	GOES	12	5	2	5	-4	17
9	Gemert	11	4	4	3	-1	16
10	Dongen	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Blauw Geel	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	TOGB	12	3	3	6	-7	12
13	Roosendaal	11	3	2	6	-5	11
14	UNA	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Vvsb	12	3	2	7	-9	11
16	Groene Ster	12	2	3	7	-17	9
17	Achilles Veen	12	2	0	10	-20	6
18	EVV	12	0	3	9	-14	3

Team

Pts

+19

+10

+15

+12

-1

-6

-1

-12

-7

-10

-13

-13

-21

+22

+22

+13

+16

-4

-1

-2

-1

-7

-5

-6

-9

-17

-20

-14

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Groene Ster vs Gemert?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Groene Ster vs Gemert?

On our numbers Groene Ster have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Gemert 24%.

How many goals will there be in Groene Ster vs Gemert?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Groene Ster vs Gemert?

Our predicted score is Groene Ster 2–1 Gemert, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Groene Ster vs Gemert?

Groene Ster vs Gemert (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Groene Ster v Gemert: numbers & prediction