Excelsior Maassluis v TOGB Prediction & Expected Goals (10 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultExcelsior Maassluis to win ✓59% · @1.83

Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.87

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27

Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 10 October the Derde Divisie Saturday brings Excelsior Maassluis against TOGB. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT. In the table, Excelsior Maassluis are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 12 matches; TOGB are 12th (upper half) with 12. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Excelsior Maassluis, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Vvsb, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

TOGB, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Roosendaal, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Momentum favours Excelsior Maassluis, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for TOGB.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Excelsior Maassluis 2.1 xG, TOGB 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Excelsior Maassluis 59%, draw 18%, TOGB 23%.
Price worth noting: Excelsior Maassluis to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 59%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excelsior Maassluis 2–1 TOGB. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Excelsior Maassluis59%fair 1.70 · @1.83

Draw18%fair 5.63 · @4.00

TOGB23%fair 4.27 · @3.10

3.30Expected goals

2.08Excelsior Maassluis xG

1.22TOGB xG

53%Both score

63%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

1–19%

2–08%

1–08%

3–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: Excelsior Maassluis 2.1 – 1.2 TOGB expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Excelsior Maassluis to win ✓	59%	1.70	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	82%	1.22	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	53%	1.87	–
Draw no bet	Excelsior Maassluis (draw no bet) ✓	72%	1.40	–
Asian handicap	TOGB +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	65%	1.53	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	63%	1.58	1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	76%	1.31	–
First team to score	Excelsior Maassluis to score first ✓	61%	1.65	–
Half-time result	Excelsior Maassluis ahead at half-time ✓	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Excelsior Maassluis / FT Excelsior Maassluis ✓	36%	2.75	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.27	–

Excelsior Maassluis – last 6

WWWWWD

3 Oct	@ Vvsb	3–2	W
26 Sep	vs Blauw Geel	1–0	W
22 Sep	@ Sportlust '46	2–0	W
19 Sep	vs Roosendaal	5–0	W
12 Sep	@ Achilles Veen	3–2	W
5 Sep	vs Noordwijk	0–0	D

2.3Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

TOGB – last 6

WWLLLD

3 Oct	vs Roosendaal	4–3	W
26 Sep	@ Achilles Veen	1–0	W
23 Sep	vs ROHDA Raalte	4–6	L
19 Sep	vs Noordwijk	0–3	L
12 Sep	@ FC Lisse	2–3	L
5 Sep	vs Groene Ster	3–3	D

2.3Scored / game

3.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ACV	12	8	3	1	+19	27
2	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	+10	27
3	Harkemase Boys	12	8	2	2	+9	26
4	TEC	12	7	3	2	+15	24
5	Excelsior '31	12	7	1	4	+12	22
6	SC Genemuiden	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Sportlust '46	12	6	4	2	+3	22
8	Purmersteijn	12	6	3	3	+7	21
9	Sparta Nijkerk	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	ADO '20	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Hercules	12	5	1	6	-6	16
12	Hoogeveen	12	4	2	6	-1	14
13	Eemdijk	12	4	1	7	-12	13
14	DVS 33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Hollandia	12	2	2	8	-13	8
17	Dovo	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	SVZW	12	0	1	11	-21	1
1	FC Lisse	12	10	1	1	+22	31
2	Noordwijk	12	10	1	1	+22	31
3	Excelsior Maassluis	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Rijnvogels	12	7	3	2	+16	24
5	Zwaluwen	12	7	1	4	0	22
6	Poortugaal	12	7	0	5	+4	21
7	UDI '19	12	6	2	4	+9	20
8	GOES	12	5	2	5	-4	17
9	Gemert	11	4	4	3	-1	16
10	Dongen	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Blauw Geel	12	4	3	5	-1	15
12	TOGB	12	3	3	6	-7	12
13	Roosendaal	11	3	2	6	-5	11
14	UNA	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Vvsb	12	3	2	7	-9	11
16	Groene Ster	12	2	3	7	-17	9
17	Achilles Veen	12	2	0	10	-20	6
18	EVV	12	0	3	9	-14	3

Team

Pts

+19

+10

+15

+12

-1

-6

-1

-12

-7

-10

-13

-13

-21

+22

+22

+13

+16

-4

-1

-2

-1

-7

-5

-6

-9

-17

-20

-14

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?

On our numbers Excelsior Maassluis have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 18% and TOGB 23%.

How many goals will there be in Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?

Our predicted score is Excelsior Maassluis 2–1 TOGB, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB?

Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Excelsior Maassluis v TOGB: numbers & prediction