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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado: numbers & prediction

Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Parque Abraham Paladino

Progreso

LLWLL
0–2
FT

Deportivo Maldonado

DDLDW
Progreso 28%Draw 23%Deportivo Maldonado 49% Expected goals 1.02 – 1.46
75%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓49% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.99

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 16 August the Primera División Apertura brings Progreso against Deportivo Maldonado at Parque Abraham Paladino. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Progreso, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Central Espanol, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Racing Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Progreso.

Head to head

When they last met (18 Jul 2026) it ended Progreso 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.0 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 28%, draw 23%, Deportivo Maldonado 49%.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Progreso28%fair 3.53 · @3.65
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.20
Deportivo Maldonado49%fair 2.05 · @1.98
2.48Expected goals
1.02Progreso xG
1.46Deportivo Maldonado xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–09%
0–08%

From our goals model: Progreso 1.0 – 1.5 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓49%2.051.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.781.80
Draw no betDeportivo Maldonado (draw no bet) ✓63%1.58–
Asian handicapProgreso +1 (Asian handicap) ✗69%1.44–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.431.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓55%1.821.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.331.25
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreDeportivo Maldonado to score first ✓54%1.86–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado ✗28%3.58–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.99–

Recent results

Progreso – last 6

LLWLLW
8 Aug@ Central Espanol0–1L
2 Aug@ Club Nacional1–2L
18 Julvs Deportivo Maldonado1–0W
11 Jul@ Wanderers0–2L
7 Junvs Albion FC1–2L
30 May@ Danubio2–1W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

DDLDWW
10 Augvs Racing Montevideo2–2D
1 Augvs Juventud0–0D
18 Jul@ Progreso0–1L
10 Julvs Albion FC1–1D
6 Jun@ Atletico Torque4–2W
31 Mayvs Club Nacional3–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

18 Jul 2026Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado1–0
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head page →

Primera División Apertura table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol351997+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado351898+2263
3Atletico Torque3519610+1863
4Club Nacional3519412+1161
5Racing Montevideo3516127+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo3516118+1659
7Wanderers3514912-251
8Albion FC3513814+347
9Juventud35101114-641
10Central Espanol3511816-1341
11Defensor Sporting3591214-839
12Cerro Largo3591016-837
13Boston River3510718-1337
14Cerro3510718-2437
15Progreso3510520-1835
16Danubio3561415-1632

More Primera División Apertura predictions

League hub
FT Defensor Sporting0 Liverpool Montevideo4 137%2.52X24%3.00239%2.78 1.0–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✗
FT Penarol2 Central Espanol1 164%1.45X22%4.00214%6.80 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

On our numbers Progreso have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Maldonado 49%.

How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.