Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 2.78 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓39% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.00
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Defensor Sporting v Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Luis Franzini. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Wanderers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albion FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Liverpool Montevideo, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Defensor Sporting.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Jul 2026) it ended Defensor Sporting 1–2 Liverpool Montevideo. The last 2 head-to-heads: Defensor Sporting 1 win, Liverpool Montevideo 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 1.0 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 37%, draw 24%, Liverpool Montevideo 39%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting37%fair 2.72 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.00
Liverpool Montevideo39%fair 2.56 · @2.78
2.07Expected goals
1.01Defensor Sporting xG
1.06Liverpool Montevideo xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–013%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.0 – 1.1 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Liverpool Montevideo 39%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
