Value bet: Gateshead to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGateshead to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓76% · @1.30
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–2 ✗6% · fair 16.93
Gateshead vs Derby County U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 8 September the National League Cup brings Gateshead against Derby County U21 at Gateshead International Stadium. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Gateshead, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Solihull Moors, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Derby County U21, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 4–4 draw with West Bromwich Albion U21, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 3.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gateshead 3.2 xG, Derby County U21 2.3 xG – a total near 5.5. That is an open game on paper: 91% for three or more goals, 76% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gateshead 56%, draw 19%, Derby County U21 26%.
GG/NG: GG (76%) at 1.30.
Price worth noting: Gateshead to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gateshead 3–2 Derby County U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gateshead56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
Draw19%fair 5.40 · @3.50
Derby County U2126%fair 3.86 · @3.00
5.50Expected goals
3.21Gateshead xG
2.29Derby County U21 xG
76%Both score
91%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–26%
2–26%
3–15%
2–15%
4–25%
3–35%
From our goals model: Gateshead 3.2 – 2.3 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gateshead to win✗
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Draw no bet
Gateshead (draw no bet)✗
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Derby County U21 +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
First team to score
Gateshead to score first✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Gateshead ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gateshead / FT Gateshead✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–2✗
6%
16.93
–
Recent results
Gateshead – last 6
DLLLDW
5 Sep
vs Solihull Moors
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Harrogate Town
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Sutton Utd
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
0–3
L
18 Aug
vs Nottingham Forest U21
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Woking
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby County U21 – last 6
DWLLLL
31 Aug
vs West Bromwich Albion U21
4–4
D
24 Aug
@ Reading U21
3–1
W
18 Aug
@ FC Halifax Town
2–6
L
14 Aug
vs Hull City U21
1–4
L
1 Aug
vs Carlisle
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Reading U21
1–4
L
1.8Scored / game
3.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gateshead and Derby County U21.
What is the prediction for Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Gateshead have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Derby County U21 26%.
How many goals will there be in Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 5.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 91% likely and both teams score 76% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Gateshead 3–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.5 goals in total.
When is Gateshead vs Derby County U21?
Gateshead vs Derby County U21 (National League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Gateshead International Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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