Value bet: Tre Fiori to win @ 2.70 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTre Fiori to win ✗42% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.97
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Tre Fiori vs Virtus: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:15 WAT, Friday 18 September: Tre Fiori v Virtus in the Campionato. In the table, Tre Fiori are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 8 matches; Virtus are 3rd (among the top four) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tre Fiori, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Domagnano, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Virtus, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Libertas, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Mar 2026) it ended Tre Fiori 1–0 Virtus. The last 2 head-to-heads: Tre Fiori 1 win, Virtus 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 0.5 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tre Fiori 1.4 xG, Virtus 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tre Fiori 42%, draw 23%, Virtus 35%.
Price worth noting: Tre Fiori to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (53%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tre Fiori 1–1 Virtus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tre Fiori42%fair 2.38 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.20
Virtus35%fair 2.82 · @2.35
2.65Expected goals
1.39Tre Fiori xG
1.25Virtus xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tre Fiori 1.4 – 1.3 Virtus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
On our numbers Tre Fiori have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Virtus 35%.
How many goals will there be in Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
Our predicted score is Tre Fiori 1–1 Virtus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tre Fiori vs Virtus?
Tre Fiori vs Virtus (Campionato) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
